2026 College Baseball Regional Preview – #16 West Virginia

2026 NCAA Baseball Tournament · Regional Preview

West Virginia
Mountaineers

The program that went to its first-ever Super Regional in 2024 and swept a ranked opponent on the road for the first time in school history in 2026 is back — with the best pitching duo in the Big 12, a sophomore catcher on the Buster Posey Award watch list, and three consecutive seasons of exponential growth under one of college baseball’s most underrated staffs.

West Virginia Mountaineers
#1 Big 12 ERA Duo 39-14 Overall 21-9 Big 12 Morgantown Regional Host
39-14Overall Record
21-9Big 12 Record
2.04Yehl ERA (#1 Big 12)
2.71Cole ERA (#2 Big 12)
.391Kelly AVG

Regional Projections | Bet Tracker

Los Angeles – UCLA | Atlanta – Georgia Tech | Athens – Georgia | Auburn – Auburn | Chapel Hill – North Carolina | Austin – Texas | Tuscaloosa – Alabama | Gainesville – Florida | Hattiesburg – Southern Miss | College Station – Texas A&M | Tallahassee – Florida State | Lawrence – Kansas | Eugene – Oregon | Morgantown – West Virginia | Lincoln – Nebraska | Starkville – Mississippi State

West Virginia enters the 2026 NCAA Tournament as one of the sport’s most compelling growth stories. Under second-year head coach Steve Sabins — elevated after Randy Mazey’s retirement following WVU’s first Super Regional appearance in program history — the Mountaineers have continued building on a foundation that has produced back-to-back 40-win seasons, a Big 12 championship, and consecutive super regional appearances. The 2026 edition sits at 39-14 (through the final regular-season series) and ranked No. 9 nationally, hosting a regional at Kendrick Family Ballpark for the first time this deep in the host conversation.

The signature moment of the season came in the penultimate weekend, when WVU swept No. 7 Kansas on the road — outscoring the Jayhawks 22-5 — the first time in school history the Mountaineers swept a ranked team away from Morgantown. That result, powered by Maxx Yehl’s first-career complete game and a Gavin Kelly home-run barrage, crystallized what this team is: a pitching-first program with emerging offensive depth, a ferociously cohesive clubhouse, and a head coach who has not flinched from the biggest moments since arriving on the West Virginia bench.

Kelly’s Power Surge, Guzman’s Speed, and a Deep Contact-First Lineup

West Virginia’s offense was the quietest part of the roster for much of the season — last in the Big 12 in home runs through the first 40 games with just 27. Then the power erupted. The Mountaineers hit 13 home runs across their final seven games before the TCU series, with sophomore catcher Gavin Kelly leading the charge with six longballs in that stretch alone. Kelly has now hit 12 on the year and leads the team in nearly every offensive category: a .391 average, 72 hits, 16 doubles, and 46 RBI, all while splitting duties between catching and second base — an extraordinary combination that has earned him Buster Posey Award midseason watch list recognition.

Coastal Carolina transfer Sean Smith (.320, 8 HR) provides power from the middle of the order, while junior Armani Guzman leads the entire Big 12 with 30 stolen bases and has hit .305. Senior center fielder Paul Schoenfeld (.368) has been a consistency anchor at the top of the lineup. Graduate shortstop Brodie Kresser provides veteran experience and on-base production from the lower third of the order, while junior third baseman Tyrus Hall and outfielder Matthew Graveline have both contributed timely pop in the team’s late-season surge.

Gavin Kelly
C/2B · So.
.391AVG
12HR
46RBI

Buster Posey Award midseason watch list · All-Big 12 Freshman team 2025 · team leader in AVG, hits (72), 2B (16), RBI · 6 HR in last 7 games entering TCU series · Big 12 Player of the Week

Armani Guzman
1B · Jr.
30SB (#1 Big 12)
.305AVG

Big 12 stolen base leader · 2025 Clemson Regional MVP · elite baserunner who changes game dynamics · double-steal specialist alongside Kresser — “The Mountaineer Special”

Paul Schoenfeld
CF · Sr. (Transfer — CSU-Mesa)
.368AVG

4th-best batting average in the Big 12 · consistent table-setter at top of order · veteran transfer who provides stability and on-base ability in every lineup slot

Sean Smith
DH/OF · Gr. (Transfer — Coastal Carolina)
8HR
.320AVG

Primary power threat alongside Kelly · 3 HR in final 6-game stretch · key portal addition at DH providing middle-of-order production from a multi-year transfer veteran

The Big 12’s Two Best ERAs, a Lights-Out Closer, and Complete-Game Depth

This is where West Virginia separates itself from mid-tier postseason teams and enters the conversation with genuine elite programs. Maxx Yehl and Chansen Cole hold the No. 1 and No. 2 ERAs among qualified pitchers in the Big 12 — and it isn’t particularly close. Yehl, a redshirt junior returning from Tommy John surgery after missing the entire 2025 season, has been one of the revelations of the 2026 college baseball year. His 2.04 ERA across 66.1 innings is the best mark in the conference, and Baseball America named him to its Midseason College Pitcher of the Year Watch List. His first-career complete game at No. 7 Kansas — 124 opponents, 67.7% strikes, just one run allowed — was the best start in school history against a ranked opponent.

Cole has been equally dominant, contributing a 2.71 ERA over 69.2 innings with his own complete game against Kansas State. WVU is 22-4 in games where Yehl or Cole has pitched. Ian Korn — a Seton Hill transfer who came to WVU as a reliever — has been arguably the most valuable arm on the staff, posting a 2.96 ERA across 48.2 innings in a hybrid role that gives Sabins maximum deployment flexibility. The Mountaineers lead the Big 12 with the lowest team ERA (4.00), and their ability to ride their starters deep into games has kept a developing bullpen protected from heavy overuse throughout the season.

PitcherW-LERAKIPRole
Maxx Yehl
LHP · R-Jr. · Friday Starter — Big 12 ERA Leader · BA Midseason POY Watch List
7-12.047966.1SP
Chansen Cole
RHP · So. · Saturday Starter — 2nd in Big 12 ERA
8-12.716969.2SP
Ian Korn
RHP · Jr. · High-Leverage Multi-Inning (Transfer — Seton Hill)
4-02.964448.2RP/SP
Dawson Montesa
RHP · Jr. · Sunday Starter (Transfer — Adelphi)
5.757361.0SP
Carson Estridge
RHP · Jr. · Bullpen Anchor
RP
Reese Bassinger
RHP · Jr. · Setup Relief
RP

“WVU is 22-4 this season across games Yehl or Cole have pitched. Yehl leads the Big 12 with a 2.04 ERA — even as good as that last Kansas complete game was, he’s kind of done that all season.”

— WVU Head Coach Steve Sabins / WV MetroNews, May 2026
By the Numbers
  • 39-14 overall — consecutive 35+ win seasons for first time in program history
  • Road sweep of No. 7 Kansas (22-5) — first road sweep of a ranked team in WVU history
  • Yehl (2.04) and Cole (2.71): No. 1 and No. 2 ERA among qualified Big 12 pitchers
  • WVU is 22-4 in games started by Yehl or Cole — the most dominant tandem record in the Big 12
  • Yehl’s first-career complete game vs. No. 7 Kansas — 124 BF, 67.7% strikes, 1 ER
  • Cole’s complete game vs. Kansas State — WVU’s second complete game of the season
  • Korn: 4-0, 2.96 ERA in 48.2 hybrid innings — 3rd in Big 12 ERA among qualified pitchers
  • Guzman: 30 SB — leads entire Big 12 Conference; 2025 Clemson Regional MVP
  • Kelly: .391 AVG, 12 HR, 46 RBI — Buster Posey Award midseason watch list at C/2B
  • Consecutive Super Regional appearances (2024 + 2025) — 3rd consecutive NCAA Tournament
Morgantown Regional Preview

West Virginia is the most dangerous dark-horse team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament field — a program that has grown fast enough to compete with any team in the country when Yehl and Cole are both dealing. The Big 12’s top two ERAs on the same weekend rotation, a 22-4 record when either ace takes the mound, a road sweep of No. 7 Kansas that announced WVU as a legitimate contender, and a sophomore catcher putting up a .391 average across an entire Big 12 season — this is not a team sneaking into the postseason. This is a program that has arrived.

The honest concern entering the regional is pitching depth behind Yehl and Cole. Montesa has struggled late in games and over his last four starts, while the bullpen — though adequate during the starters’ hot stretches — has been tested most severely when Yehl’s shoulder flared earlier in the season and forced Korn into emergency spot-start duty. The offense, while improving dramatically late in the year, also remains volatile — capable of putting up 22 runs against Kansas or going quiet for stretches against live Big 12 pitching.

The Rest of the Regional Field

Binghamton
America East · No. 4 Seed
~28-22
America East championOpens vs. WVU · Game 1
⇋ Steady — America East tournament survivors

Binghamton earned the America East automatic bid and draws the toughest possible 4-vs-1 assignment: opening at Kendrick Family Ballpark against West Virginia and Maxx Yehl, whose 2.04 ERA is the best mark in the Big 12 and among the best in the country. The Bearcats are a disciplined, fundamentals-first program that has been the America East’s most consistent postseason participant. Conner Griffin gets the ball in Game 1, and Binghamton’s contact-oriented approach gives them a competitive floor even against an ace who finished opponents .167 in his last five starts. The atmosphere in Morgantown for a Friday night regional opener will be one of college baseball’s loudest venues of the weekend.

Key Player Conner Griffin — RHP, Jr. Binghamton’s projected Friday starter against Maxx Yehl — his ability to navigate West Virginia’s contact-heavy lineup of Kelly, Guzman, Schoenfeld, and Smith through five or six innings is the primary variable for whether the Bearcats can stay competitive at Kendrick Family Ballpark long enough to give their offense a chance to produce.
Kentucky
SEC · No. 3 Seed
~34-22
SEC at-largeOpens vs. Wake Forest
⇋ Steady — SEC at-large, uneven finish

Kentucky earns a SEC at-large bid and draws Morgantown as the 3-seed — opening against Wake Forest in Game 2 in what shapes up as the bracket’s most talent-rich first-round matchup. Nick Mingione’s Wildcats have the SEC pedigree to compete at any venue, with a lineup capable of making any starter uncomfortable through the first five innings. Nate Harris gets the ball against Wake Forest’s Chris Levonas in a game that could go either way. A Kentucky win sends them to the winner’s bracket and a potential Saturday confrontation with West Virginia’s elite pitching duo — the most credible test Yehl and Cole could face in this regional.

Key Player Nate Harris — RHP, Jr. Kentucky’s projected Game 2 starter against Wake Forest — his performance in the regional opener determines whether the Wildcats advance to the winner’s bracket and set up a Saturday confrontation with West Virginia’s rotation, where the SEC-vs-Big 12 storyline would make for one of regional weekend’s most compelling matchups.
Wake Forest
ACC · No. 2 Seed
~38-18
ACC at-large · 38-18Opens vs. Kentucky
↑ Hot — ACC at-large, strong finish

Wake Forest finishes 38-18 and draws the Morgantown Regional as the 2-seed — an ACC program with legitimate power in its lineup and a rotation deep enough to compete over a full weekend. Tom Walter’s Demon Deacons open against Kentucky in Game 2 behind Chris Levonas, and a Wake Forest win sets up a Saturday winner’s bracket game at Kendrick Family Ballpark that would bring ACC firepower into WVU’s home environment. The Demon Deacons have a knack for generating production from unexpected sources throughout the lineup, which gives them a higher offensive floor than their seed suggests.

Key Player Chris Levonas — RHP, Jr. Wake Forest’s projected Game 2 starter against Kentucky — his performance in the regional opener is the most important variable for whether the Demon Deacons advance to face West Virginia’s lineup on Saturday, where the Mountaineers’ Big 12 ERA leaders would present the stiffest test Wake Forest has faced in postseason play.

Game 1 Matchup Projections

Game 1 — Binghamton vs. West Virginia

RPI Team Projected Starter Line / Total
118 Binghamton Conner Griffin 12.73
17 West Virginia ★ Ian Korn -360.46

Game 2 — Kentucky vs. Wake Forest

RPI Team Projected Starter Line / Total
37 Kentucky Nate Harris 13.62
20 Wake Forest ★ Chris Levonas -208.76

Regional Pick: West Virginia may be the final Regional seed, but there could be a couple of programs on corpse watch heading to Morgantown. Kentucky won just a single SEC series over the final 9 weekends, narrowly making the Field of 64 thanks to an RPI slipped inside the Top 40. There have been no signs of life from the Wildcats, posting one of the worst walk rates of any offense along with a fielding percentage of 163rd. This was a surprising turn of events for head coach Nick Mingione after having one of the most experienced clubs to start the season.

Wake Forest projects as a -210 favorite in the opening game, a number that moves to -160 if second starter Troy Dressler takes the hill. The Demon Deacons are nasty on the mound throughout the staff, ranking as the best team in Division I in Strikeouts per Nine. Any game between Wake Forest and West Virginia may call for an under, as both of these teams rank in the top 11 nationally in hits allowed per game.

The expectation is Maxx Yehl will get the start for the Mountaineers against Chris Levonas for the Demon Deacons. Yehl would fetch a price of -120, making this Regional a complete coin flip between both Wake Forest and West Virginia. The Mountaineers true odds to win this Regional reside at -125. The advantage at the plate falls on the ACC team, as the Demon Deacons finished top 30 in on-base and slugging.

Consdering the odds should be -120 or less in pitching matchups between the 1 and 2 seed, look to take Wake Forest and the dog money for a potential hedge against the Regional host.

  • Regional: Wake Forest +185

Analysis by Collin Wilson · ProjectThreeStraight 2026 NCAA Baseball Tournament

Collin Wilson
Collin Wilson
Articles: 100
Daily Live Bet Notifications