Happy 2025 March Madness, where every single bracket we all create will surely be in the trash bin by Thursday evening. There are multiple ways to bet March Madness, from bracket to Calcutta pools, this is the one event that gets kids, house pets and grandmothers to get in on the action. This article will look at the opening totals on each of the first round games to identify value.
Projections on totals are built through points per game, recent offensive efficiency and average possessions per game. The handicap in my tempo projection comes from dividing offensive and defensive tempo metrics, as some teams prefer to push transition in conferences where the clock is under a conference grind (looking at you Missouri Valley). While most operators build totals based upon average scoring totals, Three Straight takes an extra step to integrate advanced analytics. Teams that get to the free throw line often with a high shooting percentage are weighted towards Overs. Teams that have do not have a offensive rebounding or free throw rate tend to have more Unders.
FIRST FOUR
Style clashes exist with North Carolina v San Diego State and Texas v Xavier, but the tendency will be towards the Under in the two remaining First Four games.
16 St Francis (PA) v 16 Alabama State (Opener: 142.5, Current 140)
This total was immediately moved to the under after a DraftKings opener of 142.5. The hidden aspect of this game is Alabama State’s tendency to go uptempo on offensive possessions, ranking 66th nationally in offensive possession length. The Hornets prefer tempo, and have frequently tried to get the grinding teams of the SWAC to go faster. The great news for Alabama State is ball discipline, ranking top 5 nationally in offensive turnover rate. The bad news for the Hornets is one of the worst effective field goal rates of scoring nationally. Both teams prefer to score off three pointers, while neither defense ranks inside the top 90 in defending long distance. Alabama State does foul at a higher level, as three pointers and late free throws push us toward and Over.
Pick: Over 140 or Better
16 Mount St. Mary’s v 16 American (Opener: 133.5, Current 129.5)
Projections from our most trusted sources (KenPom, EvanMiya) land directly on 131, while ThreeStraight calls for 129.5 based on tempo and free throw rate. The dragging offense here is American, ranking 356th of 364 Division I teams in offensive pace. Both of these teams are heavily reliant on the three point shot for their point distribution, with American ranking 51st in defending the arc. Neither of these teams get to the free throw line at a rate inside the top 240, meaning stoppage of clock and shots at the charity stripe are not expected.
Pick: Under 129.5 or Better
WEST
3 Texas Tech v 14 UNC Wilmington (Opener: 142.5, Current 143.5)
A small hit on the Over came through respected books on Sunday night, an interesting move considering the pace of play for both of these offenses. KenPom does make this game 147, which could have triggered blind money in the market. Texas Tech is 238th in offensive tempo compared to 277th for UNC Wilmington. Texas Tech loves to shoot from long distance, an area the Seahawks have struggled to defend. On the flip side, UNC Wilmington is 59th nationally in point distribution from the free throw line, also ranking top 50 in rate of getting to the charity stripe. Texas Tech likes to foul, signal that UNC Wilmington is going to add to this total with the clock stopped.
Pick: Over 143.5 or Better
4 Maryland v 13 Grand Canyon (Opener: 149.5, Current 150.5)
If you like College Basketball games at warp speed, the opening tip on Friday will be great consumption. Both teams rank nearly the same in offensive possession length, 29th and 31st. Grand Canyon played a schedule of WAC teams that loved to run up and down the court in transition, while Maryland has an average defensive possession length rank of 261st thanks to a slower Big Ten. The biggest standout in the advanced analytics is the Antelopes tendency to get to the free throw line, 7th most in the country when compared to field goal attempts. That is a massive issue for head coach Bryce Drew with respect to Maryland being one of the most disciplined foul teams nationally. Grand Canyon feasts at the line, while Maryland has a heavier tendency to pound the paint. The Terrapins will find resistance against the Lopes, as Grand Canyon is 25th defensively in defending shots from inside the arc. With no free throw gimmes expected for Grand Canyon, this is an Under play after the expected tempo steam moves the number north.
Pick: Under 150.5 or Better
MIDWEST
1 Houston v 16 SIU Edwardsville (Opener: 127.5, Current 126.5)
SIUE may have an offensive tempo of 169th, but the question is whether the Cougars of Edwardsville can assert their style of offense to push around the powerhouse roster of Houston. SIU Edwardsville prefers to score from the paint, a fruitless action against the Cougars team of Houston. Kelvin Sampson’s defense is top 5 in defending the within the arc. If there is a weakness of Houston that could be exposed, a high foul rate could send opponents to the line. SIU does not get to the free throw line at a rate inside the top half of all Division I teams. The Cougars of Edwardsville are also 317th in making shots from the charity stripe. This game is totally within the hands of Houston and when they call off the dogs.
Pick: Under 126.5 or Better
5 Clemson v 12 McNeese (Opener: 133.5, Current 134.5)
A prime candidate for live betting rather than taking pregame, as McNeese is the best Kill Shot squad in the nation. This game may have taken a few hits on the Over during Sunday overnight betting, possibly a result of each teams offensive possession length being much faster than the overall team tempo. The one area of standout that moves my projection lower than all others is the fact Clemson is 316th in free throw rate. If the Tigers are unable to make it to the charity stripe with a late lead in the game, plenty of clock will burn in what could be a one possession tightly contested game. McNeese prefers to score in the paint, an issue for multiple reasons against Clemson. The Tigers not only rank 11th in defensive steal rate, but hold a top 35 efficiency rank in defending shots within the arc.
Pick: Under 134.5 or Better
4 Purdue v 13 High Point (Opener: 155.5, Current 153)
This number is on the move as of this writeup, dropping to 153 in Monday morning wagering. Purdue prefers to play as slow as possible in a half-court set, generating one of the best offensive adjusted efficiency numbers from any shot distance on the floor. High Point will be incapable of steals or blocks and has a high tendency to foul. There may be an avenue for the Panthers to contribute, specifically against a Boilermakers defense that is 350th in defending the two-point shot. High Point is 15th in shooting within the arc, also locking in to a top 50 free throw shooting percentage this season. Let this number sink, look to take an Over when resistance hits the market.
Pick: Over 153 or Better
2 Tennessee v 15 Wofford (Opener: 133.5, Current 132.5)
Who doesn’t want to see the Terriers show up and attempt to go nuclear from long distance. Wofford lives and dies on three point shooting, going 25 of 55 in two conference tournament games against East Tennessee State and Furman. Tennessee is the number one three-point shooting defense in the nation, allowing 27.8% on the season. There is no other method of scoring for Wofford, with point distributions for two-point and free throw shots outside the top 300. The Volunteers will be allowed to run their offense at their desired pace, as Wofford is 322nd in defensive turnover rate. Tennessee is 263rd in offensive possession length, a much higher rank than the overall tempo number that drags thanks to defensive analytics. The preferred bet comes on the team total, considering the gap the Volunteers put on Saint Peter’s attempts to shoot from three in last years opening game.
Pick: Tennessee Over 76 | Wofford Under 56
EAST
4 Arizona v 13 Akron (Opener: 167.5, Current 167)
When teams want to move at the rate of the Wildcats and Zips, it is important to check ball security for so many expected transition baskets. Both defenses are outside the top 175 in turnover rate, while both offenses have massive advantages in their preferred point distribution. Arizona will go down in the paint and get to the free throw line often, an issue for the Akron defense. The Zips are all about long distance, as the Wildcats are 169th in defending shots beyond the arc.
Pick: Over 167 or Better
14 Montana v 3 Wisconsin (Opener: 148.5, Current 152)
The action has been heavy on the Over for two teams not know to play with tempo. KenPom updated their projection to 152, which could have drawn enough tickets to move the line. The question is justification for the move, as the Badgers have a much slower offensive possession length rank than their overall tempo of 152nd. Neither of the defenses are inside the top 290 in forcing turnovers, meaning offensive possessions are expected to be lengthy. Montana’s three-point defense isn’t the worst against a long distance minded Wisconsin offense. The Grizzlies prefer to score inside the arc, an area the Badgers dominate on defense. Let the KenPom projected total steam before firing on an Under.
Pick: Under 152 or Better
SOUTH
5 Michigan v 13 UC San Diego (Opener: 140.5, Current 142.5)
There is massive alignment on the total with KenPom, EvanMiya and ThreeStraight calling for the exact number of 141. The hidden aspect is how fast each offense is compared to their overall tempo number. The average offensive possession length of Michigan is 22nd, while UC San Diego is 147th. The Tritons are all long distance, maintaining a steady three-point attempt and make ratio throughout the season. The Wolverines three-point defense had been trending down over 10 games before shutting down Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship. Quick points may also come from the Tritons defense, as Michigan is 328th in offensive turnover rate compared to UC Davis at 2nd in the nation in generating a takeaway. The Over steam has been justified in the market.
Pick: Over 142 or Better
7 Marquette v 10 New Mexico (Opener: 151.5, Current 152)
Do not be fooled by the Marquette overall tempo rank, as the Golden Eagles are a blazing 24th nationally in average offensive possession length. Head coach Richard Pitino prefers a frenetic attack that ranks 5th of all Division I teams in offensive pace. New Mexico prefers to go in the paint and shoot from the charity strip to get points, neither should find resistance in this opening game. Marquette never gets to the free throw line, which could be an issue in terms of a straight up victory. Shaka Smart’s teams is reliant on the three pointer, but New Mexico has been mid-Division I in defending long distance. New Mexico will attack the rim and Marquette will live at the three point line, neither getting much resistance into their tendencies.
Pick: Over 152 or Better
