Sooners
Jayhawks
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Oklahoma survived a difficult Tallahassee Regional, going 2-1 through a bracket that included a Florida State hosting field and navigating an elimination game before advancing. The Sooners’ K/9 of #13 nationally is their most impressive single metric; this is a staff that misses bats at an elite rate when healthy; and their SOS of #7 means they’ve been tested against the kind of Big 12 competition that mirrors what Kansas will bring at Hoglund Ballpark. Cord Rager opens Game 1 on the road in what will be the most electric atmosphere in program history for the Jayhawks.
The tension in Oklahoma’s profile is the same tension that has defined their season: walks (#91), hits allowed (#209), and runs allowed (#142) all sitting in the bottom half nationally against a schedule that includes the country’s seventh-hardest slate. Their team ERA of 5.31 and FIP of 6.12 are both concerning; the FIP gap between Oklahoma (6.12) and Kansas (5.48) is the largest between any two teams in this Super Regional field. If OU’s contact suppression breaks down against Kansas’s power lineup of LeBlanc, Ballinger, and Baldridge, the Sooners have limited margin for error in a road best-of-three.
Kansas swept through their home regional to earn the first Super Regional in Hoglund Ballpark history; a moment that felt inevitable from the moment Dan Fitzgerald’s program won the Big 12 regular-season title outright for the first time in 77 years. Dominic Voegele was dominant in Game 1 as a massive favorite, and the Jayhawk offense provided the kind of run support that has defined a 41-16 season built around Tyson LeBlanc (.323, 19 HR, 53 RBI), Brady Ballinger (top-60 MLB Draft prospect), and Cade Baldridge. The program’s trajectory; back to the NCAA Tournament in 2025 for the first time in 11 years, conference title and home hosting in 2026; arrives at its defining moment.
Kansas’s BaseRuns of 8.07 versus Oklahoma’s 6.85 is the clearest offensive gap of any Big 12 matchup in this bracket. Their HR/game rank of #17 nationally, slugging rank of #25, and RPI of #19 with a Road RPI of #19 all confirm this is a program that plays at a high level regardless of venue. The concern is fielding percentage (#102); Kansas commits errors at a rate that has cost them games in Big 12 play; and a SOS of only #66 compared to Oklahoma’s #7. Hoglund will be the loudest venue in Kansas baseball history. The Jayhawks need to match that moment with their execution.
3x Big 12 Pitcher of the Week (program record) · 15-K CG vs. Arizona, 7 IP/0 ER at No. 7 WVU · the -225.45 Game 1 line is the largest Jayhawk advantage in the series · KU’s entire path to Omaha runs through his right arm
All-Big 12 First Team · leads team in AVG, OPS (1.057), HR, RBI · 9th-inning HR vs. WVU’s Maxx Yehl in program-defining sweep · top-of-the-draft caliber shortstop with elite power
Oklahoma’s projected Game 1 arm at Hoglund · faces Voegele and the Jayhawk lineup in the first Super Regional game in Lawrence history · K/9 rank of #13 nationally is OU’s best individual pitching metric and the Sooners’ clearest competitive advantage
Top-60 2026 MLB Draft prospect · led Big 12 in walks in 2025 · All-Big 12 Second Team · the kind of disciplined, professional at-bat approach that will test Oklahoma’s walk-heavy staff on a big stage
National rank shown per category; lower is better. Green = top 25 nationally · Red = bottom half nationally.
| Team | Projected Starter | Line / Total |
|---|---|---|
Oklahoma |
Cord Rager | 16.24 |
Kansas ★ |
Dominic Voegele | -225.45 |
| Team | Projected Starter | Line / Total |
|---|---|---|
Kansas ★ |
Mason Cook | -213.77 |
Oklahoma |
Xander Mercurius | 16.18 |
| Team | Projected Starter | Line / Total |
|---|---|---|
Kansas ★ |
Mathis Nayral | -113.63 |
Oklahoma |
Cameron Johnson | 14.35 |
Stadium Wind Conditions · Hoglund Ballpark, Lawrence KS
Hoglund Ballpark Wind Map → Windy.comA Big 12 Rivalry Series, a Historic Venue, and Two Teams with Near-Identical ERAs
The comparison table reveals the most statistically unusual matchup of Super Regional weekend: both teams share the exact same national ERA rank (#97) and the exact same team ERA (5.31 vs. 5.33). This is not a series where one staff is clearly better than the other; it’s a series decided by offense, by home-field intensity, and by the single biggest talent gap in the entire bracket: Dominic Voegele. The -225 Game 1 line reflects the reality that Kansas’s ace is significantly better than anything Oklahoma can match, and that Hoglund Ballpark; hosting its first Super Regional ever; will be at an atmosphere level the Sooners have never experienced on the road in Big 12 play.
The offensive gap is decisive and clear. Kansas’s BaseRuns of 8.07 vs. Oklahoma’s 6.85; a 1.22-run gap; reflects a lineup built around LeBlanc, Ballinger, and Baldridge that ranks #17 in HR/game and #25 in slugging nationally. Oklahoma’s on-base rank of #136 against Kansas’s #77 compounds the disadvantage: the Sooners will struggle to generate baserunners against a Jayhawk staff that leads the Big 12 in walks control (#15 nationally). Oklahoma’s one genuine counter is strikeout rate; K/9 of #13 nationally; but the FIP gap (6.12 vs. 5.48) confirms their surface ERA has not been sustainably earned.
The SOS gap cuts both ways. Oklahoma’s #7 schedule strength means they’ve beaten teams at this level before. Kansas’s #66 means they haven’t been consistently tested against this caliber of opponent. But the Jayhawks went to West Virginia and swept a ranked team on the road. That counts for something.
Oklahoma 90/1 was one of the first tickets out of the gate when opening odds landed in February. For that reason, a hedge of the initial investment should be placed on Kansas. Kansas is the right side of this series; and this is the pick with the most narrative weight of any Super Regional on the slate. Dan Fitzgerald’s program was picked fifth in the Big 12 preseason poll, fell to 10-8 in February, won the first Big 12 title in 77 years, hosted the first Regional in Lawrence history, and now hosts the first Super Regional at Hoglund Ballpark. Voegele in Game 1 against a road Oklahoma lineup, with a crowd that has been waiting for this for generations of Jayhawk fans, is a combination that closes out series.
Oklahoma is not a pushover. Their SOS of #7 is the best in this matchup, and Cord Rager’s K/9 of #13 nationally can keep them in games when the strikeout is working. If Oklahoma steals Game 1 behind Rager and the Sooner offense generates enough off Voegele early, the Game 3 line of only -113 for Kansas’s Mathis Nayral tells you how tight that Sunday game would actually be. The Sooners have a path. It just requires beating Voegele first.
Kansas will be a pitching favorite of -225, -215 and -115 giving the Jayhawks a true series probability of advancement at 70%. The market opened -115 and was crushed within the first hour. The true series price is -235, making any number lower an investment on the Jayhawks pack for Omaha.
Series Pick: Kansas -235 or Better
Game 1: Kansas -160 or Better
