Trojans
Trojans
Super Regional Projections | Bet Tracker | Super Regional Hub
Little Rock earned their Super Regional spot the hard way, going 2-1 through the Hattiesburg Regional against a Southern Miss hosting field that included Jax State as a dangerous 3-seed. The Trojans’ pitching; led by Brannon Westmoreland, who gets the Game 1 start at Riddle-Pace Field; relies heavily on limiting contact and keeping the ball in the yard. Their hits allowed rank of #10 nationally is genuinely elite and the one metric that gives Little Rock a legitimate competitive identity going into this series.
The rest of the numbers, however, tell a harder story. Walk rate #271, runs allowed #221, ERA rank #73, on-base percentage allowed #235, and RPI #89 against a schedule ranked #119 nationally; Little Rock is here because their contact suppression carried them far enough, not because they are built to compete with a Troy program that finished the year with SOS #6 and an RPI of #35. The Trojans arrive in Troy, Alabama as significant underdogs in all three projected games and will need Westmoreland to be exceptional in Game 1 to have any realistic chance.
Troy swept through the Gainesville Regional with authority, handling a Florida-hosted bracket that included Miami (FL) and a nationally tested field. Benjamin Stubbs and Hayden Smith gave Troy two legitimate starters who can compete at any level, and the Troy offense; featuring one of the Sun Belt’s best lineups by BaseRuns; provided consistent run support throughout the weekend. The Trojans return to Riddle-Pace Field for the Super Regional having now played host-or-neutral postseason baseball across back-to-back weekends.
What makes Troy genuinely interesting in this field is the SOS. A schedule ranked #6 nationally; stronger than most programs in the field; means Troy has been tested against the kind of competition that Little Rock has never seen in the Sun Belt. Their RPI of #35 is among the 10 best of any Super Regional participant, and their BaseRuns of 7.17 (compared to Little Rock’s 5.83) reflects an offense that creates substantially more expected run production. Troy is more than a Cinderella: this is a program that earned its hosting spot.
Troy’s projected Friday ace · -188.16 favorite in Game 1 · faces a Little Rock lineup that has been carried by contact suppression; his ability to work deep into the game limits exposure to LR’s lone quality arm in a potential Game 2 situation
The -288 Game 2 line makes Smith the most heavily favored single arm in this series · if Troy wins Game 1 and Smith takes the mound on Saturday, the series is functionally over · most important pitching performance of Little Rock’s season
Little Rock’s best and only realistic path to winning a game · the national #10 rank in hits allowed is genuinely elite and reflects an ability to keep balls in the yard that is repeatable · needs to go at least 6 innings against a Troy lineup that ranks #6 in schedule strength
The -327.64 Game 3 line is the largest in the entire Morgantown/Troy Super Regional bracket and one of the largest in the field · if this series reaches Sunday, Troy has overwhelming pitching depth · Little Rock’s path to winning three games is essentially closed
National rank shown per category; lower is better. Green = top 25 nationally · Red = bottom half nationally.
| Team | Projected Starter | Line / Total |
|---|---|---|
Little Rock |
Brannon Westmoreland | 12.48 |
Troy ★ |
Benjamin Stubbs | -188.16 |
| Team | Projected Starter | Line / Total |
|---|---|---|
Troy ★ |
Hayden Smith | -288.58 |
Little Rock |
Brigden Parker | 13.56 |
| Team | Projected Starter | Line / Total |
|---|---|---|
Little Rock |
Nic Bronzini | 13.29 |
Troy ★ |
Tommy Egan | -327.64 |
Stadium Wind Conditions · Riddle-Pace Field, Troy AL
Riddle-Pace Field Wind Map → Windy.comThe Most Lopsided Odds in the Super Regional Field; And Why Little Rock’s One Weapon Matters
The -327.64 Game 3 line for Tommy Egan is the largest single-game spread in the entire Super Regional bracket; a number that reflects how dramatically different these two programs are across every category except one. Little Rock’s hits-allowed rank of #10 nationally is a genuine anomaly in what is otherwise a below-average statistical profile. The Trojans keep the ball in the park and suppress contact at an elite level, and that single skill is the only reason this series has any theoretical tension at all.
The comparison table is damning everywhere else. Walk rate #271 vs. Troy’s #58. Runs allowed #221 vs. Troy’s #126. On-base percentage #235 vs. Troy’s #83. BaseRuns of 5.83 vs. Troy’s 7.17; a full 1.34-run gap in expected offensive production. Troy’s SOS of #6 nationally means they’ve already beaten teams far better than anything Little Rock faced in the Sun Belt. Neither team has elite advanced metrics (both FIPs above 5.75), but Troy’s overall package is dramatically stronger.
The one genuine strategic question for Little Rock: if Westmoreland is elite in Game 1; limiting Troy’s dangerous lineup to two runs or fewer through seven innings; can the Trojans’ offense find enough to steal a road win? Their hits-allowed skill is repeatable. Their walk rate is not. And Troy’s lineup will work counts all day.
Troy is going to win most every analytical battle on paper, but what should be emphasized is the Trojans performance in Gainesville. Troy tore through the Florida bullpen, but 9 earned runs against the Gators ace is recognizable. Liam Peterson was considered apart of the best 1-2 punch in College Baseball, but allowed 10 hits, 9 earned runs while recording a low four strikeouts. There is every indication the scoring will continue.
The Trojans project as -190, -290 and -325 favorites in the projected pitching matchups. Troy has a true probability of 81% for advancement to Omaha. This is one of the bigger discounts in opening numbers for Super Regional prices.
Series Pick: Troy -220
