Vanderbilt @ Kentucky
Vanderbilt ML (-105)
This game tips off at 1:00 PM CST, so you have a chance to sleep in! This game is the first up on my slate and it is the riskiest bet of the three. Over the season Vanderbilt has struggled, particularly against strong ranked teams. They lost to Florida and Arkansas this season, but don’t count them out.
Kentucky has looked shaky of late. Their last game against South Carolina broke a three game skid and still raised doubts whether they should have won against the weak Gamecocks (3-12 in the SEC). It was a two-point game with under 3:00 minutes left. They were able to pull away at the end due to a few key shots and some free throws.
This Vanderbilt team can win this match-up. But a few things have to go right. First, Tyler Tanner will have to score. He’s going to have to find a way to make it happen against a physical Kentucky defense. If the Commodores can pass the ball around and also get Miles, Nickel and McGlockton involved and each contribute ten points, Kentucky’s offense won’t be able to compete. The Wildcat Oweh will most likely score 20; but limited options exist for Kentucky after that.
Don’t bet multiple units on this one. Throw down 0.5-1 units and take the moneyline.
Texas Tech @ Iowa State
Iowa State -10.5 (-110)
Iowa State has been dangerous this season in a relatively quiet way. Texas Tech, however, has been loud about it. But this game is in Hilton Coliseum. A weakened Texas Tech team without JT Toppin, (season-ending torn ACL) won’t be able to withstand the Hilton magic.
Iowa State is a high-tempo and high-scoring team. They average 82.8 points a game in large part due to their 39.2% three point percentage. Milan Momcilovic is shooting 50.7%, making him the highest ranked in the nation. Iowa State also averages 8 steals per game and those are in part thanks to Momcilovic’s 6-foot-8 frame.
This writer cannot trust many of the Texas Tech stellar season stats given the gaping hole left by JT Toppin’s absence. They have won without him against Kansas State (100-72) and Cincinnati (80-68). But Iowa State is unequivocally a better team and a bigger challenge. I doubt this Red Raiders team can do it without the player they’ve run their offense through all season.
Arkansas @ Florida
Arkansas +10.5 (-110)
Maybe I’m fangirling too hard on Arkansas, but I really think they have some of the best transition offense in recent history. Acuff Jr. has proven himself in the many games he has played this year. This game should be a high scoring affair, but I’m afraid it won’t be enough for Arkansas. The Razorbacks are averaging 90.3 points per game, which is a tall order to top. While they will certainly create offense, Calipari is only playing seven men in rotation. That line is simply too thin against this physical Florida team.
And there absolutely will be a height difference between the teams. Florida will have the height and size advantage, allowing them the space to create offense. Expect Condon and Haugh to score. They will also have a clear edge on boards since they consistently out-rebound teams, averaging 45.2 rebounds per game. This puts them in first place overall in the NCAA. I fear Arkansas isn’t going to get the chances they need for many second-chance points.
Arkansas’s recent foul troubles against Alabama, Missouri and even Texas A&M are also a cause for concern. Calipari is limited in replacements for his players if this trend continues. Despite all of the above, the Razorbacks high production offensively will keep them in this game. I’m unsure if they will be able to win, since it’s clear they will lose on the boards and foul trouble may be an issue. I’m betting Calipari can effectively use the few men he has to keep them within 10.5.
Current Record: 3-4
