Michigan @ Illinois
Michigan -1.5 (+100)
don’t take past -125 odds max
Currently, Michigan are favorites on the road, but not reflected well in the spread. I would grab this while you can!
Illinois will be the home team and should dominate the three point shooting column. It will be necessary for Wagler to have a successful night and make more than his average 18 points per game. We have seen him struggle down the stretch with his shooting and it often correlates with the Illini record. For instance, he scored 46 points for a road win against Purdue earlier this season. Struggling? Often games where the Illini lose. One thing you will see is Illinois taking care of the ball. They rank 9th nationally in fewest turnovers.
Instead, let’s look at this team from a bracket standpoint. It’s something less tangible, because you can’t quantify how badly a team “wants” to win. But when a team is on the bubble, the intangible becomes tangible. In this case, a win for Illinois could impact their seeding and allow them to shift from a 2-seed to potentially a 1-seed.
But this Illini group will have to get this win against the team with the second best adjusted defensive efficiency according to Ken Pom. Both Lendeborg and Mara provide fierce defense and excellent shot-blocking. But Michigan isn’t only a threat on the defensive side of the ball. Currently, the Wolverines are shooting over 50% from the field.
Michigan also needs to win to help their bracket seeding. They still have to play Iowa and Michigan State after this. Neither of those games are guaranteed. It’s difficult to consider they might end the season at 28-3, instead of 29-2. Michigan is also on a winning streak, 4-1 in their last 5 games,while Illinois has been struggling going 2-3 in their last 5 games. Michigan’s only two losses this season have both oddly been at home. They have continued to win on the opposing team’s court, no matter who. These kinds of trends become no less important as we begin to enter March.
I normally wouldn’t recommend anything that is -1.5 or +1.5, because at that point there is often more value in a moneyline bet. But in this case the odds are better to take -1.5. Keep an eye out, because this number is bound to change the closer it comes to gametime.
Current Record: 2-4
