Saturday’s slate brought us a few upsets that raised some eyebrows, including Texas Tech thumping Iowa State at Hilton Coliseum and Gonzaga losing to Saint Mary’s in their final game against each other as conference foes. While the Cyclones remained unaffected in regard to qualifying as a potential national champion, the Zags have stumbled further down the board.
When it comes to wagering on who will win the national championship, you can use historic Kenpom.com metrics to help guide your decision. Since 2002, every national champion has fit the same mold, possessing an Adjusted Offensive Rating (AdjO) higher than 112.0 and an Adjusted Defensive Rating (AdjD) lower than 94.0.
Teams That Currently Fit the Mold as a National Champion
Sorted by AdjD, * = Top-25 AdjO
- Duke*
- Michigan*
- Arizona*
- Florida*
- Nebraska
- Michigan State
- Houston*
- Iowa State*
While there are no new changes heading into the final week of the regular season, the field has been shaken up a bit with Duke leaping over Michigan in AdjD. Nebraska and Michigan State still sit outside the top-25 in AdjO, potentially holding them back from being able to make a deep run in the tournament should their shots fail to fall.
My Portfolio
With no one new entering the fold, there have been no new additions to the portfolio. Luckily for those who have tailed, our positions in the market are looking strong as they continue to separate themselves from the rest of the field.
I am still hesitant on adding Michigan State and Nebraska as both offenses have glaring weaknesses which brings in a higher amount of variance into their contests. Luckily we do have some wiggle room if they are able to round back into competitive form, potentially resulting in a wager heading into Selection Sunday.
Team to Monitor
Arguably one of the biggest wildcards in the tournament, the Kansas Jayhawks linger near the cut line due to their high level of play on both sides of the court.
Kansas (AdjO: 120.5/AdjD: 94.2)
After their latest loss to Arizona, the Jayhawks still sit outside the cutline due to their current mark in AdjD. Their lack of Havoc made it easier for the Wildcats to create space from their coverage, increasing the quality of their shot attempts which lead to an Effective Field Goal Percentage of 49.0%.
Fortunately for Kansas, their interior defense makes up for their lack of disruptions around the perimeter as they reside in the top-10 in Block Percentage and in Foul Rate. The Jayhawks also do a phenomenal job at neutralizing second chance scoring opportunities by ranking near the top of the board in Def Rebound Percentage, increasing their chances of creating a Killshot.
