The field is set with sixty-eight teams battling it out over the next few weeks to see who will be crowned the champion. To help determine who is capable of cutting down the nets, you can use Kenpom.com metrics to narrow down the field. Since 2002, there has been a common theme for every team who has been able to win it all, possessing an Adjusted Offensive Rating (AdjO) higher than 112.0 and an Adjusted Defensive Rating (AdjD) lower than 94.0.
Teams That Fit the Mold as a National Champion
Sorted by AdjD, * = Top-25 AdjO
- Michigan*
- Duke*
- Arizona*
- Iowa State*
- Houston*
- Florida*
- Nebraska
- Gonzaga
- Kansas
With our updated list finalized, one of these teams are going to win the national championship. Two new faces join the field with Gonzaga and Kansas squeaking in at the last second. While their defense was able to round back into competitive form at just the right time, their offense still has some cause for concern, sitting outside the top-25 in AdjO.
My Portfolio
Heading into the start of the tournament, our portfolio is looking strong, covering most of the field with great positions on Michigan and Duke who are in a tier of their own. I still have yet to add Nebraska and may hold off on adding Kansas as both offenses may hold them back from being able to make a run. If I do make any additional wagers, I will tweet them out.
If you did not bet on Gonzaga earlier in the year, then I would pass on them for the same reason as Kansas and Nebraska. While their interior offense is elite, their lack of perimeter shooting will be a thorn in their side when they run into a defense who will force them to stretch out.
Final Four Potential
Even though they have failed to make the cut, their high level of play on both ends of the court put them in a good position to make a deep run in the tournament.
UConn (AdjO: 122.0/AdjD: 94.1)
It has been a turbulent year for the UConn Huskies as turnovers disrupted their rhythm while chipping away at their total number of possessions. When they were able to take care of the ball, their offense has been terrific, ranking in the top-40 in Adjusted Offensive Rating, Effective Field Goal Percentage, and in Off Rebound Percentage.
St. John’s (AdjO: 120.1/AdjD: 94.2)
Dethroning the Huskies in the Big East Conference Championship was St. Johns, using their suffocating coverage to force them into taking low quality shot attempts for the full duration of the contest. Should their defense be able to build on their momentum, then St. John’s can neutralize anyone, giving their offense the support they need to help pull away on the scoreboard.
Michigan State (AdjO: 123.1/AdjD: 94.8)
A frequent name in our list of potential champions, Michigan State’s regression could not come at a worse time as they are now on the wrong side of the cut line in our final edition. Their reliance on transition scoring opportunities made their offense too one dimensional, leaving them vulnerable to prolonged scoring lulls when matched up against a defense who could force them into half court sets.
