When it comes to wagering on who will win the national championship, you can use historic Kenpom.com metrics to help separate who is capable of making a run and who is poised for an early exit. Since 2002, national champions have all fit the same mold, possessing an Adjusted Offensive Rating (AdjO) higher than 112.0 and an Adjusted Defensive Rating (AdjD) lower than 94.0.

Teams That Currently Fit the Mold as a National Champion

Sorted by AdjD, * = Top-25 AdjO

• Michigan*
• Arizona*
• Duke*
• Florida*
• Nebraska
• Michigan State
• Houston*
• Iowa State*

While a top-25 AdjO is not necessary, a high powered offense helps further reduce the amount of variance in their contests which increases their chances of winning. Limiting the amount of variance in a single elimination tournament is vital as one bad bounce can be the difference of moving on or being eliminated.

My Portfolio

Below are my current positions which can be found in the Action Network App (username: kmalstrom).

If you have tailed me throughout the regular season, then you would be in good standing as we have a position on nearly every team who currently fits the mold as a national champion. Two teams who I have been hesitant to bet on are Michigan State and Nebraska as both contenders have serious flaws on offense.

Michigan State is heavily reliant on their ability to score in transition and are prone to stalling out when forced into a halfcourt set. Especially when they already play at a slow pace which chips away at their total number of possessions.

Nebraska’s issues on offense are more meticulous as they struggle to generate second chance opportunities in the form of offensive rebounds and free throw attempts. The Cornhuskers also possess one of the easiest non-conference strength of schedules, meaning negative regression may be looming large when the quality of the opponent ramps up.

Teams to Monitor

In the future, this space will be reserved for a team to add to the card as we inch closer to the start of March Madness. Even though I already have a position on these two, they are still worth monitoring for those who are currently building a portfolio leading up to the tournament.

Gonzaga +4000 (AdjO: 123.3/AdjD: 94.8)

Mark Few’s team has flirted with the cutline in regard to fitting the mold as a potential national champion, fielding another exceptional unit who plays at a high level on both sides of the court. Since their stunning loss to Portland, the Zags have rounded back into dominant form by winning five straight games while covering the spread in four of them.

Braden Huff’s status lingers over the program as Few has recently announced his second leading scorer is not even close to making his return. Coach-speak aside, the lack of positive reports is certainly alarming as Huff’s timetable for a return is narrowing with each passing day.

UConn +1800 (AdjO: 123.2/AdjD: 94.9)

It has been a turbulent past few weeks of play for the Connecticut Huskies as they are 2-3 in their last five games with losses to St. Johns and Creighton. Their recent skid dropped their AdjD down to a 94.9, removing them from the cut-line.

Their regression on defense can be pointed towards their rebounding as the Huskies currently rank below league average in Def Rebound Percentage. By allowing opposing offenses to extend their possessions, the Huskies have struggled to create Killshots as they average less than 0.60 per game.