THIS IS MARCH! More than 30 conferences in Division I are set to tip off, as the winner will get an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. This post will take a look at the tournament brackets, placing futures on teams that ended the season hot with advantages in the path to the conference finals.

Our analytics will be based on the past 30 days of offensive and defensive efficiency results, looking to take the hot rosters against the teams who have gone cold in conference play.

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Conference Tournaments

Atlantic Sun (March 2 – March 9)

Hottest Team: Eastern Kentucky
Coldest Team: Jacksonville
Pick: Eastern Kentucky +1600
Notes: Expect the Colonels to stay hot in a revenge game against Jacksonville in the opening game. EKU lost to the Dolphins on the road on February 24th, briefly taking over the game in the second half. With a win over Lipscomb in the past two weeks, a longshot number with a hedge strategy is the proper investment.

Sun Belt (March 4 – March 9)

Hottest Team: Georgia State
Coldest Team: Southern Miss
Pick: South Alabama +225
Notes: While Georgia State has been the hottest team in the Sun Belt, South Alabama isn’t far behind on that list. The tournament will be held in Pensacola, less than a one hour drive from the Jaguars campus. Head coach Richie Riley may prefer to see James Madison in the finals after beating the Dukes by nearly 30 in December conference action.

Horizon League (March 4 – March 11)

Hottest Team: Robert Morris/Northern Kentucky
Coldest Team: Wright State
Pick: Robert Morris +250
Notes: The Semifinals are played in Indianapolis, giving the higher seeds the advantage in the Quarterfinals. Robert Morris should be plenty motivated with a potential first game against Wright State, as the Raiders stole a victory on February 2nd from the Colonials. Can Northern Kentucky make a run in this tournament with 30/1 odds? Both Milwaukee and Cleveland State hold significant blowout victories against the Norse.

Patriot League (March 4 – March 12)

Hottest Team: Bucknell
Coldest Team: Colgate
Pick: Bucknell -115
Notes: Taking the favorite in a conference tournament, but consider the Patriot League is played on campus sites. Home court advantage plays supreme in the Patriot, as the top overall seed has won this tournament the past three seasons. With Bucknell winning every conference game at home this season, look to ride the favorite through the finals.

Ohio Valley (March 5 – March 8)

Hottest Team: SEMO
Coldest Team: Morehead State
Pick: SEMO +150
Notes: Southeast Missouri State has had one of the bigger efficiency jumps in a positive direction of any Division I team, recently blowing out the two-seeded SIU Edwardsville on the road. All tournament games will be held on the neutral court in Evansville, Indiana. Tennessee State has been one of the hotter teams in the conference, but has taken two losses to SIU Edwardsville this season.

Big South (March 5 – March 9)

Hottest Team: Presbyterian
Coldest Team: Longwood
Pick: Winthrop +950
Notes: The good news for Presbyterian is a recent win on the road against Radford. The bad news for the Blue Hose is the poor strength of schedule that has correlated to a hot streak in February. Top seeded High Point has not lost a game since mid-January, but there have been close calls. UNC Asheville holds a victory over the Panthers, recently losing in overtime at High Point. Winthrop looks to be the team coming out of the bottom half of the bracket, previously smoking Longwood and a double digit victory over UNC Asheville to end the regular season. With High Point carrying a heavy tax in the betting market, look to take a longshot from the bottom of the bracket and get ready to hedge in the championship game.

Summit League (March 5 – March 9)

Hottest Team: South Dakota
Coldest Team: South Dakota State
Pick: Omaha +450/South Dakota +2200 (Half Unit Each)
Notes: The Summit League is 3rd in Home Court Advantage per KenPom, meaning wins on the road are rare in this conference. All tournament games will be on a neutral site in Sioux Falls, as the handicap of the historically wild tournament may come down to who performs best away from home. Omaha has struggled with South Dakota, currently the hottest team in the conference. Both teams have longer odds to win the tournament, but Omaha has beaten Kansas City and Oral Roberts soundly on the road. North Dakota State is close to being the coldest team in the conference, leading to a split half unit wager on two teams that should make the conference final.

Northeast (March 5 – March 11)

Hottest Team: Long Island
Coldest Team: Stonehill
Pick: Long Island +370
Notes: All games will be on the higher seeds home court, as the NEC ranks as the 11th highest confernece in home court win rate. Interestingly enough, LIU and Central Connecticut have each taken games on the others home court through conference play. No other team in the conference was able to get a win on the Sharks home floor.

Missouri Valley (March 6 – March 9)

Hottest Team: Bradley
Coldest Team: Valparaiso
Pick: Bradley +240
Notes: The real sweat of the tournament is holding an Over the total ticket when Bradley faces Drake in the Championship game. The Braves have a recent road win against the Bulldogs, as top two seeds traded road victories in conference play.

West Coast (March 6 – March 11)

Hottest Team: Portland
Coldest Team: Washington State
Pick: Saint Mary’s +120
Notes: Gonzaga has owned San Francisco and Washington State in conference play, as there is no denying the Bulldogs will be apart of the championship picture in the West Coast Tournament. Saint Mary’s beat Gonzaga twice this season, each with a high post-game win expectancy in favor of the Gaels.

CAA (March 7 – March 11)

Hottest Team: Hampton
Coldest Team: Campbell
Pick: Hampton 35/1, UNC Wilmington +160 (half unit each)
Notes: Hampton and UNC Wilmington have been hot down the stretch, as neither should see a contest from Charleston in the semifinals. This isn’t necessarily a cake walk for Townson, who has lost to ninth-seeded Elon and escaped Drexel by a single point. Considering the Tigers struggles with Hampton to end the regular season, a half unit on two teams from the bottom of the bracket is justified.

Big Sky (March 8 – March 12)

Hottest Team: Sacramento State
Coldest Team: Eastern Washington
Pick: Montana +250
Notes: The city of Boise will play host to the tournament of the Big Sky, where one of the lowest KenPom rankings in blowout games exist. The top two seeds should dominate the bracket, as Norther Colorado took just three conference losses. One of those came at home to two-seeded Montana, currently the second highest efficiency bump of the past 30 days thanks to an offensive outburst. The game on February 6th saw the Grizzlies take over mid-first half and never look back.

American East (March 8 – March 15)

Hottest Team: Vermont
Coldest Team: UMBC
Pick: Vermont +250
Notes: Not many teams in Division I have had the offensive boost over the past month as Vermont. TJ Hurley has been a buckets machine, particularly as one of the best long distance shooters nationally. Although Maine played two tough games against Vermont in conference play, the Catamounts have the advantage of a better seed and playing host in Burlington. Considering Bryant has cooled offensively over the past month, there is a good chance Vermont is hosing the championship game in this conference.

Southern (March 9 – March 12)

Hottest Team: Chattanooga
Coldest Team: Mercer
Pick: Chattanooga +270
Notes: Chattanooga may be the hottest team in the the SoCon, but injuries will follow them into the tournament. Despite the road block, no other teams have caught fire down the stretch. Furman, UNC Greens, ETSU and Wofford have all maintained their offensive and efficiency ratings over the past month of play. The Spartans played the Mocs tight during the regular season, but struggled in losses to the two direct teams in their bracket with ETSU and Wofford.

Southland (March 9 – March 12)

Hottest Team: Lamar
Coldest Team: Houston Christian
Pick: Lamar +900
Notes: McNeese has been an absolute animal this season, losing just single game since December 14th. The Cowboys have been one of the most trusted live betting teams in the nation with a high level of Kill Shots. The only team to beat McNeese in conference play was Nicholls, but Colonels may be blocked by Lamar who beat Nicholls twice. The -700 odds on McNeese are justified and also not playable. Spare change on a Nicholls longshot number is the investment, but Tuesday live wager as a hedge against Lamar is suggested.

SWAC (March 11 – March 12)

Hottest Team: Grambling
Coldest Team: Prairie View A&M
Pick: Jackson State +450/Florida A&M +1400
Notes: The good news for some teams is a neutral site in College Park, GA. Home court meant nearly nothing in the SWAC, as KenPom records a 53% winning percentage by home teams to rank 30th of 31 conferences. If there is one team top-seeded Southern does not want to see, it is Alabama State. In two conference games this season, the Jaguars lost both games to the Hornets by a combined two points. A similar scenario exists for the two-seed Jackson State, as Florida A&M took both games from the Tigers in SWAC play. The winner Jackson St. and Florida A&M will draw Alcorn State or Bethune-Cookman, both of which have been beaten by Jackson State and Florida A&M. Look to ride a half unit on the winner of the 2 versus 7 seed throughout the tournament.

ACC (March 11 – March 15)

Hottest Team: Clemson
Coldest Team: Notre Dame
Pick: Clemson +500
Notes: Could the path be any easier for Duke on the way to the finals of the ACC Tournament in Charlotte? The injury bug has been apart numerous teams the top half of the bracket including Georgia Tech, Notre Dame and Pitt. Wake Forest has severely struggled down the stretch, clearing the path for another potential North Carolina showdown for the Blue Devils. Both Clemson and Louisville ended the regular season with two conference losses, as Clemson lost to Louisville but also took down Duke in early February. While the Cardinals have minor increases in effieincy over the past month, no one in the ACC is playing better defense than Clemson. The Tigers should be a three-point favorite in a head to head semifinal with Louisville, allowing a future investment to have options for hedge.

Big 12 (March 11 – 15)

Hottest Team: BYU
Coldest Team: Kansas
Pick: BYU +1000
Notes: More than half of the Big 12 Conference Tournament Championship games have been the top two seeds over the past decade. Taking any seed lower than the fifth seed has been the equivalent of burning money, as no seed lower than 5th has made an appearance in the championship game over the past 15 years. The two hottest teams heading into Oklahoma City are BYU and Colorado, but the path for the Buffaloes is filled with plenty of landmines. BYU should have the leg up in a projected quarterfinal game against Iowa State, beating the Cyclones in Ames on March 4th. The Cougars have been the hottest team offensively over the last month and 3rd in offensive efficiency this season of all Big 12 teams. A hedge on this ticket will not be considered until the semifinals against Houston, a team that allows and creates plenty of Kill Shots for live betting.

Conference USA (March 11 – March 15)

Hottest Team: New Mexico State
Coldest Team: Western Kentucky
Pick: Louisiana Tech +1000
Notes: The Aggies are playing the hottest basketball over the past month, specifically on the defensive side of the ball. New Mexico State owns a recent double-digit victory over Kennesaw, but had no such luck in two chances against Liberty. Jacksonville State is capable of losing a game to a lower seed, struggling down the Conference-USA stretch in losses to Sam Houston and Kennesaw State. Louisiana Tech should make it to the semifinals after two sweat-free wins against Middle Tennessee. Look to take the Bulldogs who should be as a favorite or pick ’em against every team in the conference except Liberty.

MAAC (March 11 – March 15)

Hottest Team: Manhattan
Coldest Team: Marist
Pick: Iona +750
Notes: Every game should be a nailbiter in the MAAC, ranked as the highest close game rate of all 31 conferences per KenPom. This tournament can get whacky, as an 11-seed made the championship in 2023 while the 2021 version saw the 7 versus 9 seed. Manhattan has been the hottest team overall from an efficiency standpoint, although Fairfield has played the best defense over the past month. Although Merrimack ended their season beating Quinnipiac and Marist, there have been head scratching losses to Sacred Heart and Mount St. Mary’s. Iona could be the proper longshot bet as fifth seeded Manhattan is the favorite of the tournament. The Gaels beat Manhattan in late February, nearly knocking off Merrimack in an overtime loss the next game. No team has had a higher offensive efficiency the last month than Iona.

WAC (March 11 – March 15)

Hottest Team: Utah Valley
Coldest Team: Southern Utah
Pick: Utah Valley +250
Notes: The Orleans Arena will be the site of the quarterfinals through the championship, as the WAC had one of the highest home court winning and blowout rates of all the conferences. Utah Valley is the cream of the conference, losing just a single conference game at Grand Canyon on February 1st. Chances are high the Wolverines will not see the Antelopes, as Cal Baptist split their series with Grand Canyon. Winning seven games on the road in this conference for Utah Valley is higher than any other team, and is worth action when listed as the second favorite odds.

Big West (March 12 – March 15)

Hottest Team: Cal Poly
Coldest Team: UC Irvine
Pick: UC San Diego -160
Notes: Despite the negative efficiency over the past month, IC Irvine has taken 7 of their last 8 games in conference. The problem is the strength of schedule, failing to bea UC Riverside or UC San Diego since the middle of January. Cal Poly has one of the best improvements in efficiency, but will potentially face a UC Riverside team that will be looking for revenge from an overtime loss. The elephant in the room in the Big West is UC San Diego, currently running through the conference like a freight train. Only two teams have stayed within 10 points of the Tritons 13 game winning streak. One of those teams was Cal State Northridge, but the game on February 27th was never in question.

Big East (March 12 – March 15)

Hottest Team: St. John’s
Coldest Team: Georgetown
Pick: Xavier +1100
Notes: St. John’s enters the tournament as the betting favorite, but also bring a few injuries to Madison Square Garden. Providence or Butler should not be a threat to the Red Storm, losing 10 of the last 11 games combined. Xavier may be sitting pretty in the upper half of the bracket, getting a Marquette team on fumes and losing to St. John’s on the road in overtime.

MEAC (March 12 – March 15)

Hottest Team: Maryland-Eastern Short/SC State
Coldest Team: NC Central
Pick: Norfolk State +110
Notes: Looking for a winner in this conference could correlate to finding a team that can win on the road. The MEAC is has the 2nd highest home win rate of all 31 conferences per KenPom. The problem with a neutral side of Norfolk Scope Arena is the location is a 7 minute drive from Norfolk State’s home court. All three losses by the Spartans this conference season came on the road. Neither Howard or Morgan State had more than two road wins in conference play, while South Carolina State failed to beat any team ranked higher in KenPom.

Mountain West (March 12 – March 15)

Hottest Team: Colorado State
Coldest Team: Nevada
Pick: Colorado State +350
Notes: Colorado State is blazing through the Mountain West over the past month, beating higher ranked opponents on the road in recent play against Boise State and UNLV. Utah State was drubbed by nearly 30 against Rams on March 1st. Top seeded New Mexico has tripped in conference play, losing to Boise State and San Diego State on the road. An early conference loss to San Jose State could be a rematch in the quarterfinals.

SEC (March 12 – March 16)

Hottest Team: Arkansas
Coldest Team: Ole Miss
Pick: Texas A&M +2500, Alabama +375
Notes: There is a case to be made that Arkansas can make a run after netting the highest efficiency change of any SEC team over the past month. The Hogs were horrific in a recent loss to South Carolina, shooting 3 of 22 from long distance. With regression from down town and a projected game against the coldest team in the tournament with Ole Miss, Auburn could be in for another round with the Razorbacks. Arkansas lost at Auburn by 7 on February 9th, covering as the road underdog. At 150/1 there are worse bets to be made, but injuries and shallow depth will keep the Hogs from contending.

Tennessee has failed to look the part over the past month, failing to beat any team by more than 10 points. Texas A&M projects as a five-point underdog to Tennessee, coming up short to the Volunteers a couple of weeks ago despite the game going back and forth. Texas A&M has made the semifinals in three consecutive years, losing in the finals of the tournament in both 2021 and 2022.

Alabama could beat anyone on any given night, taking down Auburn in overtime to end the regular season. The Crimson Tide lost to Florida and Tennessee by a combined 8 points this month, establishing Nate Oats teams as a serious contender in this tournament. Keep in mind, Alabama has won the SEC Tournament two of the past four years.

American Athletic (March 12 – March 16)

Hottest Team: East Carolina
Coldest Team: Temple
Pick: East Carolina +3000
Notes: East Carolina comes into The American tournament with the biggest increase in efficiency over the past 30 days, thanks to a hot offense stretch. The Pirates took the night off in a 28-point loss to Florida Atlantic to end the season, setting up a gratuitous path in the tournament. East Carolina will draw UTSA and UAB, two teams that are winless against the Pirates. Although North Texas will be a heavy favorite in the semifinals, the Mean Green have struggled in recent games against Wichita State at home and Rice on the road. Memphis is certainly the team to beat, but the Tigers must deal with a Shockers squad that won heads up on February 16th. Look to take the Pirates longshot number and grab Memphis in the futures market before the Semifinals.

Atlantic 10 (March 12 – March 16)

Hottest Team: Duquesne
Coldest Team: Fordham
Pick: VCU -125
Notes: There is a logjam of hot teams in terms of increasing their efficiency over the past month. Both VCU and Loyola Chicago are included in that group, but the bottom half bye teams of George Mason and Dayton have treaded water. The Rams should power through the top half of the bracket, especially considering Loyola Chicago’s troubles with Saint Louis. The only team with the offensive firepower to keep scoring with VCU is Dayton, taking a short loss at home to the Rams on February 7th. While the Flyers are priced properly at +500 to win the Atlantic 10, VCU will be a touchdown favorite or more against every opponent.

Hottest Team: UCLA
Coldest Team: Michigan
Pick: Maryland +460
Notes: Interestingly enough, only five teams have a positive efficiency increase over the past month: UCLA, Michigan State, Northwestern, Indiana and Oregon. Every single one of those teams are paired against each other in the top half of the conference bracket. This is all music to the ears of Maryland, as 10th seeded Ohio State is the only team in the bottom half of the bracket to beat the Terrapins in conference play. A recent road victory at Michigan should give Maryland the confidence needed to take on the battle royal happening in the top half of the Big Ten bracket.

MAC (March 13 – March 15)

Hottest Team: Eastern Michigan
Coldest Team: Toledo
Pick: Akron +150
Notes: Here is the good news for Akron, the three teams to avoid are all in the lower bracket and would not play the Zips until the championship. Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan are on streaks, while Kent State is one of the top scoring teams in the MAC. The Golden Flashes lost four games to Miami Ohio and Akron and only three other games to the rest of the conference. If the Redhawks are the Kryptonite for Kent State, then Akron should cut down the nets after dominating Miami of Ohio on January 25th.

Ivy League (March 15 – March 16)

Hottest Team: Dartmouth
Coldest Team: Princeton
Pick: Yale -160
Notes: Yale and Cornell have been stagnant from an efficiency rating perspective over the last month, but the same cannot be said about their opponents. Dartmouth has been red hot, logging one of the biggest defensive gains of any team in Division I. The Big Green did take a recent short loss at home against Yale, but a Kill Shot run at halftime should give Dartmouth confidence. The opposite is in play for Princeton, severly struggling to find scoring. The Tigers have lost more than half of their games since the end of January, nearly losing a spot in the conference tournament. Yale projects as an 8-point favorite over Princeton and a 13-point favorite over Dartmouth, completely justifying any price under -200 to win the Ivy.