Welcome to the weekly Future Update report, a look at our current portfolio of investments to win Omaha. The goal is to assess each team midweek, determining if the market has value with regards to winning the College World Series. Every week I will publish a Futures Top 10, a ranking that will focus on the value of the number and not so much on who can win Omaha. Although Tennessee is the best team in College Baseball, the better number for investment may reside in another team.
Here is our Top 10 Ranking of the best College Baseball futures (odds per DraftKings):
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Notes for the latest Top 10:
As stated on X, the time to buy the Florida Gators was at 100/1 before the rubber match on Sunday against Arkansas +500. Kevin O’Sullivan’s club has bounced nicely from early season injuries generating a top 35 rank in home runs per nine and fielding percentage. The pitching staff is coming on hot, currently supporting a lower xFIP than ERA and FIP. If there is an issue with buying a future now, it’s that the Gators have the second toughest remaining schedule in the country. For our record tracking purposes, a 75/1 will be kept on a Florida team that will be a Regional favorite as a two-seed.
Looking for a future in the SEC may revolve around finding the best team on the road. Nearly every team is in the top 25 for toughest strength of schedule remaining of all Division I teams. Over the past 6 weeks, only four teams have won two series on the road: Texas A&M +1800, Texas +1300, Kentucky +5500 and Tennessee +500. Aggies futures have already been purchased, while the Volunteers price is not justified after losing the last two series to LSU and Kentucky. Although Texas is ranked as the best team in the country, there are serious concerns for the Longhorns with a sagging xFIP after losing Friday night starter Jared Spencer for the season to injury. The Longhorns also benefit of having Missouri as a road series victory.
Searching for a surging team in the ACC can be just as cloudy. Clemson took a team wipe against NC State, being swept with a run difference of 18 runs over three games for the Wolfpack. NC State has been found anywhere around +6500, an intriguing option with a Quad 1/2 record of 13-4 and a high road RPI. This Wolfpack team isn’t catching as many barrels as its previous version since the pandemic, but recent series wins against Virginia and Louisville will make this a dangerous non-hosting regional seed.
The Oregon +5000 sweep of Oregon State +3000 was eye opening over the weekend in Eugene. The Beavers pitched well enough, but simply did not bring the sticks by producing just five runs through three games. The Ducks have a soft remaining strength of schedule at 41st, supporting an 8-1 record against Quad 1 and 2 teams. Will the NCAA Selection Committee look at the Ducks sweep over the Beavers as enough to vault them into Super Regional territory? Projected as a two seed a week ago, a Big Ten Tournament victory in Omaha could be perfect preparation for a potential College World Series visit. Oregon is in the buy category for a future this week, especially with outfielder Mason Neville leading all college sticks in Home Runs per Nine.
