With the regular season in the rear-view mirror, March Madness is quickly approaching, bringing us another exciting tournament for our viewing pleasure. As for who will win it this year, only a handful of teams fit the mold as a potential national champion, possessing the talent that is needed on both ends of the court to sustain a run to the title.

To help determine who is capable of cutting down the nets, you can use Kenpom.com metrics to narrow down the field. Since 2002, there has been a common theme for every team who has been able to win it all, possessing an Adjusted Offensive Rating (AdjO) higher than 112.0 and an Adjusted Defensive Rating (AdjD) lower than 94.0.

Teams That Currently Fit the Mold as a National Champion

Sorted by AdjD, * = Top-25 AdjO

• Duke*
• Michigan*
• Arizona*
• Florida*
• Nebraska
• Houston*
• Iowa State*
• Michigan State

While some bettors use the end of the regular season as the cut off for who can win the national championship, I prefer to wait until the conclusion of the conference tournaments as one hot stretch of play can shake up the field.

My Portfolio

With Kansas, Gonzaga, and UConn all failing to rank above the cut line, there have been no new additions to the portfolio. I have also continued to stay away from Michigan State and Nebraska as their offenses have yet to crack the top-25, making them overly reliant on their ability to defend which may result in an early exit if their opponent gets hot.

Iowa State’s regression on offense is also worth monitoring, though it looked like they may have finally broken out of their slump by beating Arizona State 86-65. Their low free throw percentage is still a major concern, potentially being the difference maker when the quality of their opponent ramps up.

Teams to Avoid

In previous editions, this section has been reserved for who to monitor heading into the start of the tournament, focusing on teams sitting near the cut line. With the current field pulling away from the rest of the pack, we now turn our attention towards who to avoid as their lack of production on one end of the court brings in way too much variance for them to make a run.

Illinois (AdjO: 131.6/AdjD: 98.4)

Illinois has been a juggernaut on offense this year, leading the nation in Adjusted Offensive Rating while ranking in the top-10 in Turnover Percentage and in Off Rebound Rate. Unfortunately for the Fighting Illini, their defense has yet to give them the production they need to be a well-rounded contender, making it easier for their opposition to match their output to help generate an upset.

St. John’s (AdjO: 119.7/AdjD: 95.2)

While the Fighting Illini’s struggles can be attributed to their defense, St. John’s lack of shot making has been a constant thorn in their side, fielding a lineup who ranks well below league average in Effective Field Goal Percentage. Should their shots fail to fall, then the Red Storm may find themselves going home early as they lack the firepower that is needed to dig themselves out of a hole.