The College World Series has finally landed, as 307 Division I programs have been narrowed down to a field of 8 teams. Eight separate fan bases will pack Charles Schwab Field in Omaha, formerly TD Ameritrade Park. As one of the rising premier sporting events on the calendar, a College Baseball national champion will be crowned after 10 days of action.
The format of the College World Series can be confusing to newcomers of the event. Teams are separated into groups of four in two brackets. Those bracket positions were predetermined by the 16 top seeded elected by the NCAA selection committee. There is no reseeding in Men’s College Baseball, as Regionals and Super Regionals funnel to a single position in the bracket. Each bracket is determined by a double-elimination bracket of four teams, similar to Regionals. The two bracket winners will then face off in a best of three series of the Championship Round, a similar format to the Super Regionals.
This article will focus solely on Bracket 2, scheduled to start on Saturday, June 14th. UCLA, Murray State, Arkansas and LSU will play a double-elimination format to send a team to the Championship Series. Before diving into the individual matchups and the pick selection to win Bracket 2, plenty of notes are needed on the Park Factors associated with Charles Schwab Field.
Charles Schwab Park Factors
Park Factors is a statistic that indicates a particular ballpark affect that correlates to the outcome of the games by influencing the scoring of runs. Any Major League Baseball fan knows Coors Field is a haven for runs in the summer, while the Seattle Mariners home field of T-Mobile is aiming for a fourth consecutive toughest venue to score. There is no mystery as how Charles Schwab Field plays during the College World Series.
Omaha will be a shock to the system of all 8 teams, as the lowest Park Factors number for every team comes with Oregon State at 0.95. A factor of 1.00 indicates a neutral ballpark, while above the mark is favorable for hitters. Alex Box for LSU has a 6-year average of 1.18, while Coastal Carolina clocks in at 1.30 over the past three years. Charles Schwab is on the other side of hitter friendly, measuring in with a Park Factor of 0.85. These numbers are factored into projected totals through every game in the College World Series.
Another notable comes in the game times, generally at 1pm and 6pm starts. For anyone who has traveled to Omaha for the event knows weather plays a major role in start times, but games that start between 4pm and 6pm CST can create shadows between the pitchers mound and home plate. If a heavy lean to the Under was not already in play for every game, always check start times and factor in a whipping wind that can change directions at anytime.
Bracket 2 Breakdown
Handicapping the Opening Games
How exactly did Murray State become only the second #4 seed to make it to Omaha since 1999? The Racers have never stopped hitting, ranking fourth nationally in doubles. The main driver behind everything with Murray State is pitch selection, as head coach Dan Shirka has a lineup that ranks 11th nationally in Strikeout to Walk ratio. Previous history of #4 seeds have proven winning a game is possible, as Oral Roberts won their opener in 2023 before consecutive losses.
The handicap against UCLA will come down to limiting walks and getting punch outs against the Racers lineup. The Bruins are 93rd nationally in Strikeout to Walk ratio, but projected starter Michael Barnett has just 18 walks scattered over 81.1 innings pitched this season. The UCLA ace has not allowed more than two earned runs in any outing since May3rd, issuing just 7 walks over the past 46 innings. Keep in mind that low bullpen numbers are assisted by one of the best defenses in college baseball, ranking as the top overall team in Division I in turning double plays.
Both LSU and Arkansas sit at the top of the odds board to win the College World Series, set to face each other on Saturday night. The Tigers won a three game series in May over the Razorbacks, as the Hogs gave away the opener in extra innings. Gage Wood was dominated in Game 2 while Anthony Eyanson cruised against the Arkansas sticks, but neither are expected to start the opener in Omaha. Zach Root logged a quality start on the road in Alex Box Stadium, going 6 innings with 6 strikeouts while allowing two earned runs. Root is sure to watch out for Ethan Frey, who had the only home run of the game in the opener for LSU.
Kade Anderson had a tougher time with the Arkansas bats the first time around, as the LSU ace surrendered 7 hits and a walk. Despite leaving 9 runners stranded to LSU’s 6, Arkansas lost the game thanks to two earned runs charged to Aiden Jimenez from the bullpen. Coach Dan Van Horn is sure to use Parker Coil and Christian Foutch if needed in Omaha against LSU. More importantly, Eyanson projects as a favorite over any other Arkansas starter. How much of a coin flip are these two teams? Both staff ERA’s sit at 3.9, while Arkansas’ 4.4 xFIP just nudges LSU at 4.7.
For followers of Project Three Straight, futures were procured on both sides throughout the season. With slightly better hitting numbers and a fresh bullpen of Coil and Foutch, look for Root to hand this game over to the bullpen after seven strong innings. Murray State has been a great story, but the lack of a bullpen will make it tough on the Racers to get into slugfests with LSU and Arkansas. After Barnett, UCLA lacks additional starters and bullpen to compete with their SEC opponents.
Bracket 2 Winner
Bracket 2 Pick: Arkansas -110 or Better
